LPA DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION “MARCE”

Location of Center (5:00 PM)

The center of Tropical Depression was estimated based on all available at 1,315 km East of Eastern Visayas (OUTSIDE PAR) (9.8°N, 137.7°E)

Intensity

Maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 70 km/h, and central pressure of 1004 hPa

Present Movement

Northwestward at 30 km/h

Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds

Strong winds extend outwards up to 340 km from the center

GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD:

• The Tropical Depression will steadily move northwestward at a fast pace and may enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow (4 November) as Tropical Cyclone MARCE. This northwestward movement will continue until Tuesday (5 November), before it begins to slow down significantly while turning more northward.

• From Wednesday until the end of the forecast period, the tropical cyclone will move northward, then westward at a slow pace over the Philippine east of Extreme Northern Luzon. This portion of the forecast has a high uncertainty due to two possible scenarios – either (1) the tropical cyclone will move more westward towards Extreme Northern Luzon or mainland Luzon or (2) the tropical cyclone will move erratically over the Philippine Sea east of Extreme Northern Luzon. As such this portion of the track forecast is highly likely to change in the succeeding advisories or bulletins.

• As the tropical depressions moves northwestward within the PAR region, it may enhance the surge of northeasterly wind flow which may occur within the week. This, and the trough of the tropical cyclone, will bring rains over Extreme Northern Luzon and the eastern section of Luzon beginning tomorrow or on Tuesday. Should the forecast track of this tropical cyclone change to a more landfalling scenario, heavy to torrential rainfall caused directly by the tropical cyclone may begin affecting Northern Luzon on Thursday (7 November) or Friday (8 November). Flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible under these conditions, especially in susceptible areas identified in hazard maps and in areas with significant rainfall observed over the past several days (due to saturated soil condition).

• Although a northeasterly windflow is already bringing moderate to rough seas over the seaboards of Northern Luzon, the approaching tropical cyclone will worsen sea condition this week (due to the enhancement of the northeasterly windflow) over the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the western and eastern seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon. Furthermore, the hoisting of Gale Warning over the seaboards of Northern Luzon may begin on Tuesday.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to continue monitoring for updates related to this tropical cyclone.

Unless there is an intermediate issuance, the next tropical cyclone advisory will be issued at 11:00 PM today.

Reference: https://www.facebook.com/share/p/jLDhHm6aTVdxUmtd/